Met Office verdict as sub-Saharan plume set to push UK closer to Indian summer

UK weather: Met Office forecasts further heavy rain

After a late-summer heatwave, attentions are now turning to October – where the prospect of an Indian summer remains wide open.

The nation was rudely shunted into autumn this week, when remnants of ex-Hurricane Lee unleashed chaos on the nation with flash flooding, strong winds and eventful thunderstorms hitting local areas.

The latter end of this week will see the exit of one, and the entrance of another: namely ex-Hurricane Nigel which is sitting in the North Atlantic and belting out 90mph winds in the process.

While, by Sunday, it will be less dramatic as it enters the UK’s jet stream – it’s still poised to bring a new wave of wind and rain in its wake. 

So, this begs the question – will the UK see anymore warm temperatures, or was the heat surge in September the last one of 2023?

READ MORE: New maps show ex-Hurricane Nigel bringing chaos to Britain in days

What does the Met Office say?

An Indian summer is a term used to describe warm weather conditions in October and November. With October just under a fortnight away, there is hope of some more settled on the horizon. 

But can the Met Office promise an Indian summer? In short, not quite yet. 

In its long-range forecast, from Monday, September 25 to October 1, it says in full: “Monday will see cloud and outbreaks of rain slowly moving southeast, with drier conditions ahead of this, and sunny spells and showers to the northwest.

“After this, confidence reduces; however further areas of low pressure are likely to move towards the UK. Northwestern areas are most prone to spells of rain and wind, while the southeast has the best chance of some drier spells, which may temporarily extend further north at times.

“Temperatures are likely to be generally above average, especially towards the south.

“Towards the end of this period, a similar theme is likely to persist, with the greatest chance of unsettled conditions towards the northwest, while central and southern areas have a greater chance of drier spells.

“Temperatures are likely to remain generally above average.”

Looking even further ahead, the Met Office is forecasting a mixed bag. From October 4 to 18 it adds: “Through early to mid October, generally blocked weather patterns are more likely than average, however there is significant uncertainty around the detail and resultant conditions over the UK.

“A typical mix of autumnal conditions may occur at times, although drier than average conditions are slightly more likely than wetter than average conditions over this period as a whole.

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“Above average temperatures also continue to be more likely than below average temperatures, although cool nights, along with patchy mist and fog are probable during settled spells.”

WXCHARTS weather maps show the UK’s thermometers ranging from 18C to 15C during the first four days of October in the south east.

But Netweather maps are a bit more optimistic, with temperatures remaining around the 20C mark in London and surrounding areas. 

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