Could Jacob Rees-Mogg become the next Prime Minister? What are the latest odds on the Tory MP and vocal Brexit-backer?

At least Tory MPs have submitted no-confidence letters against their beleaguered leader over her draft Brexit deal. But what is the likelihood that Jacob Rees-Mogg could replace her?

Could Jacob Rees-Mogg become Prime Minister?

Technically, yes, he could, depending on the eventual outcome of a revolt initiated against Theresa May by Brexiteer plotters including Rees-Mogg and Boris Johnson.

But, Rees-Mogg has gone on record numerous times rejecting press speculation that he wants to challenge her.

He has even suggested alternative Members of Parliament who could potentially succeed her, including Johnson, David Davis, Dominic Raab and Esther McVey as being “very capable of leading a proper Brexit”.

How could Theresa May be ousted?

May could end up losing her job, as 48 (equivalent of 15 per cent) of all 315 Conservative Party MPs have submitted a letter of no-confidence to the 1922 Committee – a group made up of every backbench Tory politician which meets weekly when the Commons is sitting.

A secret ballot has been triggered, where all Conservative MPs can vote for or against their leader.

Should May win, her leadership cannot be challenged for another year.

The rules say that more than 50 per cent  of the party would need to vote against her to force her to stand down.

Should May lose that ballot she would have to resign as PM, and there would be a leadership election, which she would be barred from taking part in.

What happens if May loses the no-confidence vote?

There would be a leadership contest to choose her replacement, who would become prime minister – but a general election would not be automatically triggered.

If several candidates come forward – such as Rees-Mogg – a secret vote is held among Conservative MPs to whittle down the field.

The candidate with the fewest votes is removed, and Tory MPs vote again. The process is repeated, on Tuesdays and Thursdays, until just two candidates remain.

Those two potential leaders are then put to a postal ballot of the wider Conservative Party membership.

When David Cameron stepped down as prime minister after the EU referendum in 2016, five candidates stepped forward in a bid to replace him. May eventually became leader, unopposed, after the field was narrowed to her and then-junior minister Andrea Leadsom.

What are the latest odds on the Tory frontrunner and vocal Brexit-backer Jacob Rees-Mogg?

Not great, according to William Hill’s latest figures.

When it comes to becoming the next Tory Prime Minister to replace Theresa May, Rees-Mogg is currently in eighth place, alongside Penny Mourdant (both at 14/1).

This puts him behind current frontrunners Boris Johnson and Sajid Javid (both 9/2), Dominic Raab, Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove (all at 8/1), as well as David Davis (at 10/1).

Possible results of a snap election, though, shows that Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn is second favourite to be whisked into Downing Street, with Ladbrokes placing him at 5/1.


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